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Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide has returned to the Caribbean, purportedly for a 10-week family reunion in Jamaica. Aristide will strive quietly to become a burr under George W. Bush's...

Exiled Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide returned from the Central African Republic to the Caribbean on March 15, where he is visiting Jamaica for a 10-week stay approved by Prime Minister P.J. Patterson. Interim Haitian Prime Minister Gerard Latortue promptly severed diplomatic ties with Jamaica for what he called Kingston's "unfriendly" act. He also suspended Haiti's links with the 15-member Caribbean Community (CARICOM).

Latortue's suspension of ties with Jamaica and CARICOM is irrelevant. The Patterson government and other CARICOM members have refused to accept the legitimacy of the interim Haitian government, which also includes provisional President Boniface Alexandre. CARICOM governments are pushing for an international inquiry into the circumstances surrounding Aristide's flight from Haiti aboard a U.S. government aircraft Feb. 29. Neither Patterson nor other Caribbean officials believe the Bush administration's denial that Aristide was forced to sign a resignation letter and flown against his will to a distant exile in Bangui.

Aristide's return to the Caribbean, however, has two immediate geopolitical implications. It also has a tactical implication for U.S.-led international peacekeeping forces in Haiti.

The first geopolitical implication is that more political violence is likely in the coming weeks and months, as pro-Aristide loyalists demand his return to the presidential palace in Port-au-Prince. Jamaican officials insisted March 15 that Aristide would not abuse the temporary asylum he was granted to stir things up in Haiti, which is only 125 miles from Jamaica. However, Aristide told U.S. reporters he hoped to return to Haiti soon, and he repeated accusations that the Bush administration duped and forcibly abducted him from Port-au-Prince.