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Figures for third quarter U.S. gross domestic product are in.

Figures for third quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) have come in, and they show the economy has contracted by 0.3 percent. This is not the final number; there will be two additional revisions in the coming months that can alter this figure substantially. Therefore, the economy may not have contracted at all, or it may have contracted more than reported. For the moment, however, the United States is in recession. As we have commented before, there is no possible argument as to what a recession is. It is when GDP declines. If it declines for two quarters, the economy is in recession for two quarters. If it doesn’t decline, we are not in recession. We point that out to avoid metaphysical discussions on the nature of recessions.


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