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Russian forces were only 40 miles from the Georgian capital at dusk on Monday. As Georgia faces its literal and metaphoric twilight hour, Stratfor's thoughts turn further west.

As dusk settled Monday over Tbilisi, the capital of the former Soviet state of Georgia, Russian forces were only 40 miles away. After five brief and brutal days of fighting, the Russian army — in league with its proxies — had gutted the Georgian army and destroyed the Georgian air force and navy. Ports are ruined, occupied or blockaded. Roads are barred. Russian advances have in effect split the country into three parts and prevented any interested parties from intervening on Georgia’s behalf.

No one, however, is trying to intervene. There are very few countries that maintain expeditionary forces, and those that do are overcommitted and unable to reinforce the Georgians. Even if troops had been available it is unlikely that they could have reached the battle in time to have made a difference. The Georgians stand alone, and soon they will fall.


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